A user is not successfully onboarded until they have completed their activation milestone. Hence, the activation metrics are extremely useful.
Based on the user insights, goals and their behaviours, we can define a couple of hypothesis which might indicate a successful user onboarding and then validate them based on some supporting metrics to conclude on the activation metrics to be used for Mudrex.
Activation Hypothesis
Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis:
First deposit within 24 hours of signup
Explanation:
Users who complete their first deposit within 24 hours of signup are more likely to continue investing and engaging with the platform.
Making the first deposit quickly is a strong indicator of user intent. A seamless deposit experience reduces friction and ensures users don’t drop off after signup. Faster deposits also build trust in the platform’s security and efficiency. If users delay depositing, it may indicate uncertainty or usability issues.
Key Metrics to Track:
- Deposit conversion rate (D0, D1, D7) - number of signed up users depositing
- Time taken to first deposit (median and average)
- Drop-off rate between signup and first deposit
- Retention rate of users who deposit vs. those who don’t
Hypothesis 2
Hypothesis:
Investment/trade in 3 different coins within 7 days
Explanation:
Users who invest/trade in at least three different coins within the first 7 days are more likely to stay engaged and develop long-term trading habits.
Exploring multiple assets increases user engagement, diversification, and exposure to different opportunities. If a user limits themselves to just one asset, they might be less inclined to continue trading. Encouraging broader exploration enhances retention and increases trading volume.
Key Metrics to Track:
- Percentage of active users trading in 3+ coins within 7 days
- Average number of different assets traded per user
- Retention rate of multi-asset traders vs. single-asset traders
- Trading volume growth over time
Hypothesis 3
Hypothesis:
$100 AUM in 14 days
Explanation:
Users who accumulate at least $100 in Assets Under Management (AUM) within 14 days are more likely to continue investing and become long-term customers.
Higher AUM indicates a stronger commitment to the platform. If a user reaches $100 quickly, it suggests they trust the platform and see value in their investments. Low AUM early on may indicate hesitation or lack of confidence. This metric also correlates with revenue potential, as platform fees depend on AUM.
Key Metrics to Track:
• Percentage of users reaching $100 AUM in 14 days
• Average AUM per user over time
• Churn rate of high vs. low AUM users
• Correlation between AUM and trading frequency
Hypothesis 4
Hypothesis:
5+ overall trades/investments in 7 days (can be same assets/coins)
Explanation:
Users who make at least 5 trades/investments within the first 7 days are more likely to become active, recurring traders.
Frequent trading early on suggests that users are comfortable with the platform and see value in continuing to engage. A low trade count may indicate that the user is still hesitant or does not find the trading experience compelling enough. Encouraging multiple trades increases platform stickiness and long-term engagement.
Key Metrics to Track:
• Percentage of users making 5+ trades within 7 days
• Average number of trades per user in the first week
• Retention and engagement rates of high-trade vs. low-trade users
• Trading volume growth over time
Hypothesis 5
Hypothesis:
First withdrawal within 14 days of signup
Explanation:
A user completes their first withdrawal within 14 days of signing up.
This measures whether users see full-cycle value in the platform. A withdrawal indicates that they have deposited, traded/invested, and now trust the platform enough to cash out their funds. If users complete a withdrawal within the first 14 days, it shows that they are actively engaging with the platform beyond just experimentation. A smooth withdrawal experience also builds confidence, making users more likely to reinvest, deposit again, and continue using the platform. If withdrawal rates within this timeframe are low, it could indicate friction in the process or a lack of perceived value in cashing out, signaling areas for optimization.
Key Metrics to Track:
- Percentage of users making a withdrawal within 14 days.
- Average time taken from first deposit to first withdrawal.
- Retention rate of users who complete a withdrawal vs. those who don’t.
- Number of users who re-deposit after withdrawing.
Validating Hypothesis
Given Mudrex is in early scaling, we can track three key outcomes to validate our hypothesis. These include:
- Impact on retention curve
- Impact on referral and wom
- Impact on LTV
Activation Hypothesis | Impact on retention curve | Impact on referral | Impact on LTV |
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First deposit within 24 hours of signup |
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Investment/trade in 3 different coins within 7 days |
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$100 AUM in 14 days |
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5+ overall trades/investments in 7 days |
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First withdrawal within 14 days of signup |
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Impact on Retention Curve
Impact on Referrals
Impact on LTV
Conclusion